The recent daily decrease in the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is beyond most people’s expectations. On the night of ‘Double 11’ (November 11), it went from a high of $68,986 all the way down, accompanied by a few small pullbacks, provoking BTC speculators along the way.
Following a pullback, the market saw another “emergency upward adjustment” on the evening of November 23, reaching a high of $57,880. It reverted to $56,208 only a few hours later. Is the current pullback trend indicating that we are in a bull market or not? If the bull market isn’t done, where does the retracement end?
From the Fibonacci Backtest
When combined with the low point of the previous retracement:
If Fibonacci falls below 0.618 once more, the bottom of BTC’s short-term strong support should be around $53,561. If it falls below this level, the probability of additional decline increases.
In the short term, the most likely scenario is that the current cycle will be extended, and the bull market will last through the first quarter of 2022. Recent corrections do not signal the end of the bull market. All the main averages are intact, and no single signal suggests a significant reversal of the overall trend. This is merely a stage and an excellent opportunity to buy crypto. According to the bottom linear trend, there should be strong support about $54,000.
External sales analysis
“Despite the decline of Bitcoin, market performance has not appeared to be extremely poor, and sales pressure has been relatively stable,” said Matthew Dibb, COO at Stack Funds, a Singapore-based crypto asset management company. He anticipates that this situation will persist unless BTC falls below $53,000 and finds support again at that price point.
Finally, we analyze the handicap once more.
The buying order is fierce and has been accumulating, maintaining the bottom position and making it difficult for the price to drop.
In addition, the number of Bitcoin addresses above 1K has increased.
The illiquid supply continues to rise, and the supply is at an all-time low.
In simple terms the demand has increased while the supply has decreased. When the market moves for a long enough period, and a new round of gains begins.
So, in the short term, around $52,000 is still a strong support position, short-term strength is growing, and there are numerous big-time drops. It is a high-altitude situation if the retracement does not exceed $60,500. When the bull market breaks through, they will be the dominant force. From a technical standpoint, the moving averages (MA) at the daily level remain in a downward posture, and the short-term energy column on the MACD remains unchanged, implying that the KDJ low third line is also diverging downwards, suggesting that we must continue to focus on the current situation. At $57,500, if there is pressure on this price point, the market will choose to move up; if it fails to break through, the short position will force downward again.
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